The timing of major life cycle events (reproduction, flowering, feeding) is set by seasonal environmental cues in many organisms.  Migratory fish in the Great Lakes are largely spring spawners, and they move into tributary rivers as the water warms in March-June.  There is growing evidence that the timing of these migrations is shifting under climate change, creating ever-earlier migrations.  These changes in timing may profoundly change which species are present in rivers at a given time, potentially unraveling critical ecological linkages during the dynamic spring warming period.  We are analyzing historical data on migration timing of six species across the Great Lakes basin, using Bayesian statistical modeling to maximize power to detect shifts from a patchwork of migration records in space and time

Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases have caused global warming, resulting in considerable shifts in ecosystem function and structure, particularly in sensitive cold climates like the Arctic. As the Arctic continues to warm, the ground thaws and permafrost degrades, resulting in changes to shrub communities. These changes can cause northern tundra soils, which have twice as much below ground carbon (C) as atmospheric carbon, to shift from sinks to sources of C. The fate of this large C pool may be driven not only by climatic conditions, but also by ecosystem changes brought about by arctic animal populations. For example, grazing, burrowing, and defecating are expected to alter nutrients and soil decomposition, although this area of research has not been well explored. In this project I will quantify the effects of arctic ground squirrels, Urocitellus parryii, activity on soil respiration and other characteristics in interior Alaska

The field of climate adaptation is still getting established, and guidelines and examples for how to manage for climate change on-the-ground are still rare. The concept of climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change that enable persistence of valued resources, is being discussed as a potential adaptation option in the face of anthropogenic climate change. This project seeks to provide practical guidance for how to operationalize this concept and to work with stakeholders to help prioritize actions to conserve climate change refugia. In addition, I use the tools of ecological and climate modeling and historical field data to test predictions of climate change refugia in the Sierra Nevada of California. Many resource managers and conservation organizations are looking to help their ecosystems, habitats and species adapt to climate change.  Climate change refugia can allow species to persist in the face of warming and changing precipitation regimes

Forests play a role in air quality by supplying the atmosphere with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors to ozone and aerosols. Different tree types emit different VOCs, each with different capacity to form ozone and aerosols. Therefore, shifts in forest composition may impact ozone and aerosol yields. Climate change is one of the expected drivers of forest change. In particular, the current range boundaries of a variety of species are expected to shift northward. The impacts of these climate-induced shifts in forest composition on air quality, particularly VOC emissions and subsequent ozone and aerosol formation, is little understood. This project aims to explore the relative contribution of shifts in approximately 25 tree species to changes in the VOC, ozone, and aerosol environment using a suite of high-resolution models

Climate change is shifting the hydrodynamics and temperature of both the Great Lakes and their tributary rivers.  Both hydrology and temperature may play potent roles in mediating the magnitude of watershed nutrient load and their fate upon reaching the lake.  Tributary hydrology reflects the source of water (groundwater vs. surface runoff) and seasonal timing of discharge, while tributary temperature determines the density difference between river and lake water.  Similarly, mixing patterns in these massive lakes strongly influence whether tributary loads remain near the shore or become diluted in the open water, while the thermal profile determines whether inflowing river water is trapped at the surface, sinks to the bottom, or stays at an intermediate depth.  These physical interactions are critical for understanding the ecological impact of tributary loads, and how it is mediated by climate change

We are identifying historical relationships between climate extremes and species abundance, and then developing downscaled climate projections for the extreme climate metric. This information is then used to provide an initial projection of how the species abundance and location may change in the future. These initial assessments can help inform future assessments that consider broader types of climate and ecological information

The first phase of this project developed an online platform to enable rapid sharing and cataloging of silviculture case studies documenting adaptive forest management approaches across MI, MN, Ontario, and WI.  The goal was to create a clearinghouse of information for forest managers across the region to disseminate ideas on addressing emerging issues and tracking effectiveness of a given approach.  The Prescription Library serves as the basis for regional continuing education offerings for natural resource professionals throughout Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, and Wisconsin. The project initiated in late March 2014 and now shares over 120 case studies in adaptive silviculture through the Prescription Library platform. These case studies cover Minnesota, Ontario, and Wisconsin and demonstrate a range of silvicultural approaches to address current and emerging issues related to the sustainable management of forests in the Great Lakes region.

Given the increasing impacts of climate change and natural disturbances on forest ecosystems across the US, there is a need for monitoring systems that allow for accurate and rapid detection of historic and future changes in forest area and carbon stocks. This collaborative project between UMN, USFS, and NASA is piloting a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) accounting system that could be used within the context of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory baseline reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. To accomplish this, baseline biomass density and historic data about forest change derived from Landsat and LIDAR information are being combined with USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring system to provide annual estimates of forest C stock and stock change from 1990 to present for several regions of the US

This project examines the ecological impacts of several introduced and expanding forest insects and diseases on forest habitats across the northeastern US and upper Lake States region.  To address these novel threats, this work applies large-scale, co-developed experimental studies documenting impacts of ash mortality from emerald ash borer on lowland black ash communities in the Lake States and northern hardwood forests in New England; regional assessments of the impacts of the climate change-mediated expansion of southern pine beetle into northeastern pine barren communities; and ecological characterizations of areas experiencing suppression efforts to reduce the spread of the introduced Asian long-horned beetle in central New England and Ohio. Included in this work are the evaluation of co-developed adaptation strategies for mitigating impacts of these and other invasive species in combination with future effects of climate change.

This project aimed to quantify the range in variability in forest dynamics and climate responses for range-margin populations of Pinus banksiana and Picea mariana so as to generate management guidelines for conserving these forests on the landscape in an uncertain climatic future.  These species are the cornerstone for several upland and lowland habitat types on the western edge of the Northeast CSC and are particularly vulnerable to future changes in climate and disturbance regimes.  This project took advantage of extensive dendrochronological and forest community data to determine the drivers and future dynamics of key demographic processes for these tree species