We improved downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data for climate change impacts assessments in the Lake Champlain Basin as part of the VT Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).  This effort investigated the potential for using high-resolution topographic data to further downscale existing bias-corrected and statistically downscaled GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. We found large changes in several impact variables of relevance to the region, including hot days, cold days, maple syrup production, and cooling degree days. This project evaluated local projected changes in climate across, as well as drives high-resolution hydrologic and ecological models for, the Lake Champlain Basin

Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP3 data, we are developing a range of projections for the Eastern U.S.  We are also developing extreme event projections for stakeholder-relevant metrics (e.g., days over 90 °F, days below 32 °F, and days with over 1 inch of precipitation) based on CMIP5 models and North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dynamical downscaling.  We are also evaluating the performance of these models over historical time periods. Current research thrusts include emphasis on extreme heat stress (heat plus humidity) events and the relationship between extreme minimum temperatures and Southern Pine Beetle range expansion in the Northeast U.S.   We are finding that small changes in average conditions are associate with large changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events

This research investigated forecast skill in predicting the onset and severity of drought.  One of the unique features of this project was the active engagement of major water supply utilities and an evaluation of how climate informed short-term stream flow forecasts and longer-range climate change forecasts influence the water supply systems.  We engaged with the cities of Boston, New York, Providence, Philadelphia, and Baltimore to explore how operational policies that consider climate change can help them prepare for the future conditions that may be different than in the past, particularly in terms of variability.   In one case, a project, including an evaluation of seasonal-scale hydrologic forecasts for the east coast, was advised by ongoing discussions with the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, the organization responsible for providing the city's drinking water. This was performed with conjunction of CCRUN.