The northeastern U.S. is highly exposed to climate change; in fact, the rate of change is higher than most places on earth (Karmalkar and Bradley 2017). The forests of the Northeast CASC region, and the wildlife that inhabit them, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.  In particular, the boreal forests, a biome that reaches from Alaska to the Northeast, and the northern hardwoods, including sugar maple and paper birch, are expected to be intolerant of climate warming. Likewise, many of the birds, mammals, amphibians, fish, and insects that inhabit these forest ecosystems are at their southern range edges here and are considered sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, local species’ adaptive capacity is limited by habitat fragmentation, high rates of invasive species, and other stressors. There is considerable uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and direction of future changes, particularly with respect to interactions with changes in land use and land management, as well as novel interactions amongst co-occurring species. Thus, a focus on climate adaptation in northern forest ecosystems, including evaluations of the impacts of particular actions, is critical. 

Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP3 data, we are developing a range of projections for the Eastern U.S.  We are also developing extreme event projections for stakeholder-relevant metrics (e.g., days over 90 °F, days below 32 °F, and days with over 1 inch of precipitation) based on CMIP5 models and North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dynamical downscaling.  We are also evaluating the performance of these models over historical time periods. Current research thrusts include emphasis on extreme heat stress (heat plus humidity) events and the relationship between extreme minimum temperatures and Southern Pine Beetle range expansion in the Northeast U.S.   We are finding that small changes in average conditions are associate with large changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events

This research investigated forecast skill in predicting the onset and severity of drought.  One of the unique features of this project was the active engagement of major water supply utilities and an evaluation of how climate informed short-term stream flow forecasts and longer-range climate change forecasts influence the water supply systems.  We engaged with the cities of Boston, New York, Providence, Philadelphia, and Baltimore to explore how operational policies that consider climate change can help them prepare for the future conditions that may be different than in the past, particularly in terms of variability.   In one case, a project, including an evaluation of seasonal-scale hydrologic forecasts for the east coast, was advised by ongoing discussions with the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, the organization responsible for providing the city's drinking water. This was performed with conjunction of CCRUN.