Project

Effective migratory bird management and conservation requires an integrate approach at multiple spatial and temporal scales.  We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model for dabbling ducks during spring migration. We are modeling foraging and resting behavior at prominent spring migration stopover sites throughout the midcontinent region.  Emergent properties of the working model include spring migration stopover duration, movement distances and survival.  We used the model to evaluate alternative land-use change and management scenarios to evaluate the effects of environmental variation on dabbling duck spring migration stopover duration and survival. The agent-based model has been developed and is has been evaluated and validated using emergent properties, including stopover duration, survival and movement distances.  We have performed 7 different analyses encompassing approximately 3,000 individual simulations

Project

The goal of this project was to identify how winter severity, snowpack, and lake ice could change through the mid- and late-21st century, and how species such as the white-tailed deer and mallard duck will respond. Because currently available climate data is at too coarse a scale to provide information on future conditions for the Great Lakes, researchers transformed these models from a global-scale to a regional-scale. Using these models, researchers found that the region could experience substantial warming, reduced lake ice cover, and increased precipitation, with more precipitation falling as rain than snow, among other changes. 

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