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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

The use of climate and land cover to predict avian abundance across the Midwestern United States.


We used a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to evaluate land cover and climate relationships with abundance of avian species with varying habitat requirements across the Midwestern U.S. based on North American Breeding Bird Survey data. We then linked these models to landscape change and climate models to evaluate potential long-term impacts on birds and evaluate proposed conservation activities to mitigate negative impacts associated with climate change. This research predicted large scale patterns in bird abundance for conservation planning.



  • Jaymi J. LeBrun, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Frank R. Thompson III, and Joshua J. Millspaugh.  2014.  The relationship between climate and land cover in predicting avian abundance across the Midwestern United States.  Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference.  Kansas City, MO February 2014.
  • LeBrun, J. J., J. E. Schneiderman, F. R. Thompson III, W. E. Thogmartin, W. D. Dijak, H. S. He and J. J. Millspaugh.  2013.  How does forest management focused on mitigating climate change affect avian species? Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America.  August 2013, Minneapolis, MN.