Sea Level Rise and Its Impacts

Project Leader:

Radley Horton

Project Fellows:

Ethan Coffel

Project Investigators:

Robert Thieler, USGS

Nathaniel Plant, USGS

Christopher Little, Princeton University

Partners:

Federal agencies

US Geological Survey (USGS) Science Centers

Leetown Science Center

USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

US Fish and Wildlife Service

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)

National Park Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Research community

Princeton University

Rutgers University

Local & County Governments and Organizations

Infrastructure managers

State agencies

+9 more

States:

Maine

New Hampshire

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New York

New Jersey

Maryland

Delaware

Virginia

+7 more

Status:

Ongoing

Overview

A reconnaissance study distinguishes coastal areas of the northeastern U.S. (approx. Virginia to Maine) that will experience an inundation-dominated response to sea-level rise from those that will respond dynamically due to physical and bio-physical sedimentation and erosion processes. Areas that will be dominated by inundation include urban regions of intense development and/or coastal engineering, as well as bedrock coasts. Areas that will respond dynamically include beaches, unconsolidated cliffs, barrier islands, and wetlands. Distinguishing which processes are relevant to sea-level rise impacts in these areas aids prioritization of scientific research and decision support efforts.

Also see Dr. Robert Thieler's A Research and Decision Support Framework to Evaluate Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S.

Tools And Products

Sea Level Rise Viewer

A web mapping tool to visualize community-level impacts from coastal flooding or sea level rise (up to 10 feet above average high tides). Photo simulations of how future flooding might impact local landmarks are also provided, as well as data related to water depth, connectivity, flood frequency, socio-economic vulnerability, wetland loss and migration, and mapping confidence.

Sea Level Rise Viewer Sea Level Rise Viewer

Integrative Tool to Estimate Potential Sea Levels in Sandy Recovery

A web tool to assist in developing information to support its sea-level change policy, which supports the USACE overarching climate change adaptation policy.

Integrative Tool to Estimate Potential Sea Levels in Sandy Recovery Integrative Tool to Estimate Potential Sea Levels in Sandy Recovery

Publications

Gornitz, V., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R., Orton, P., Buchanan, M., Lin, N., et al. (2019). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise. Annals Of The New York Academy Of Sciences, 1439, 71-94. http://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.2019.1439.issue-110.1111/nyas.14006 (Original work published Mar-03-2020)

Hall, J. A., Weaver, C. P., Obeysekera, J., Crowell, M., Horton, R. M., Kopp, R. E., et al. (2019). Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable. Coastal Management, 1-24. http://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012 (Original work published 24-Jan-2019AD)

Garner, A. J., Weiss, J. L., Parris, A., Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Overpeck, J. T., & Horton, B. P. (2018). Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections. Earth\Textquoterights Future, 6, 1603-1615. http://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000991 (Original work published 29-Oct-2019AD)

Lentz, E., Thieler, R., Plant, N. G., Stippa, S. R., Horton, R. M., & Gesch, D. B. (2016). Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood. Nature Climate Change. http://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2957

Horton, R. M., Little, C., Gornitz, V., Bader, D. A., & Oppenheimer, M. (2015). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Chapter 2: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms. Annals Of The New York Academy Of Sciences, 1336, 36-44. http://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.12593 (Original work published January 2015)

Lentz, E. E., Stippa, S. R., Thieler, R., Plant, N. G., Gesch, D. B., & Horton, R. M. (2015). Open-File Report:Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods. http://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141252 (Original work published 13-Feb-2015AD)

Little, C. M., Horton, R. M., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Yip, S. (2014). Uncertainty in 21st century CMIP5 sea level projections. Journal Of Climate, 141029115110008. http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1 (Original work published October 2014)

Little, C. M., Horton, R. M., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., Vecchi, G. A., & Villarini, G. (2015). Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge. Nature Climate Change, 5, 1114-1120. http://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2801 (Original work published Sep-09-2016)

Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Little, C. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Oppenheimer, M., Rasmussen, D. J., et al. (2014). Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth\Textquoterights Future, 2, 383-406. http://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000239 (Original work published August 2014)

+4 more

Presentations

R. Horton. "Tipping Points and Surprises" USGCRP Webinar on the Climate Science Special Report, August 2, 2018

R. Horton. "Sea Level Rise and Other Extreme Events", ACCL Law Event, NY, NY, April 27, 2018

R. Thieler, E. Lentz, R. Horton. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting in San Fransisco, CA, December 15, 2014.

R. Thieler, R. Horton. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting in San Francisco, CA, December 15, 2014.

R. Horton. University of Colorado in Boulder on March 5, 2014.

R. Horton. UNAVCO conference in Bloomfield, CO, March 4, 2014.

R. Horton. Hurricane Sandy Task Force Resilience Incentive Prize Workshop, NY, NY, May 8, 2013.

R. Horton. USGS-NPS Strategic Sciences Group Meeting on Hurricane Sandy, NJ, March 2013.

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Other

Research-informed tool: NOAA Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

Research-informed tool: USACE Sea-Level Change calculator