Multi-model regional model simulations for future climate scenarios

Project Leader:

Raymond Bradley

Project Fellows:

Fan Fangxing

Liang Ning

Project Investigators:

Michael Rawlins

Ambarish Karmalkar

Partners:

Resource Managers

States:

Maine

New Hampshire

Vermont

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New York

Pennsylvania

New Jersey

Delaware

Maryland

Virginia

West Virginia

Ohio

Kentucky

Indiana

Michigan

Wisconsin

Illinois

Minnesota

Iowa

Missouri

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Status:

Completed

Overview

General circulation models and high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are being used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US. We are interested in the timing of changes regionally, as compared to the changes occcurring nationally and globally, and the patterns of key parameters that are of relevance to natural systems (frost occcurrence, snow cover, drought, fire hazard conditions, etc). We are also assessing the consistency of climate models in simulating recent climate changes, in order to improve confidence in future scenarios.

Tools and Products

Climate System Research Center

A website built to provide an assessment of how will the climate of a given state change by the time the annual mean global temperature set levels

Climate System Research Center Climate System Research Center

Publications

Karmalkar, A. V. (2021). Drivers of exceptional coastal warming in the northeastern United States. Nature Climate Change. http://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01159-7

Kirchhoff, C. J., Barsugli, J. J., Galford, G. L., Karmalkar, A. V., Lombardo, K., Stephenson, S., et al. (2019). Climate assessments for local action. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society. http://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0138.1 (Original work published Jun-19-2019)

Karmalkar, A. V., Thibeault, J. M., Bryan, A. M., & Seth, A. (2019). Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies—case study: Northeastern United States. Climatic Change, 154(3-4), 367-386. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02411-y

Karmalkar, A. (2018). Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society. http://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0127.1 (Original work published May-16-2018)

Karmalkar, A., & Bradley, R. S. (2017). Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 \textdegreeC and 2 \textdegreeC for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States. Plos One, 12, e0168697. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0168697 (Original work published Jan-11-2017)

Rawlins, M. A., Bradley, R. S., Diaz, H. F., Kimball, J. S., & Robinson, D. A. (2016). Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America. Journal Of Climate, 29, 6923-6935. http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0802.1 (Original work published Jan-10-2016)

Ning, L., & Bradley, R. S. (2015). Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios. Scientific Reports, 5, 17073. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep17073 (Original work published Nov-20-2015)

Staudinger, M. D., Morelli, T. L., & Bryan, A. (2015). Integrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans, 201 pp.

Cook, T. C., Yellen, B., Woodruff, J. D., & Miller, D. (2015). Contrasting human versus climatic control of erosion. Geophysical Research Letters, 42. http://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064436

Fan, F., Bradley, R. S., & Rawlins, M. A. (2015). Climate change in the Northeast United States: An analysis of the NARCCAP multimodel simulations. Journal Of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, n/a - n/a. http://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023073 (Original work published 2015)

Fan, F., Bradley, R. S., & Rawlins, M. A. (2014). Climate change in the northeastern US: regional climate model validation and climate change projections. Climate Dynamics, 43, 145-161. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2198-1 (Original work published July 2014)

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Presentations

Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", Climate Resiliency Symposium, UMass Amherst. Apr 18, 2018

Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", NE CASC Webinar, UMass Amherst. Mar 28, 2018

Karmalkar, A et al: Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections; AGU Annual meeting, New Orleans, Dec 2017.

A Case Study with Maple Syrup Production: A.M. Bryan, E. Kearney, J.M. Rapp, A. Karmalkar, T.L. Morelli, AGU Fall Meeting 2016, San Fancisco. Dec 2016

Karmalkar, A., Framework for selecting climate models for impact studies in the Northeast, NE CSC Webinar Series, UMass Amherst, Nov 16, 2016

Bradley, R.S., When Does Choice of Downscaling Method Matter in Decision Making? , MA State House Forum on Climate Change & Resiliency, Boston: March 25, 2015

Karmalkar, A., Global warming, Water Supply Citizens Advisory Committee (WSCAC) to Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) meeting in Southborough, MA: May 12, 2015

Karmalkar, A., Climate Change and Wetlands panel at the Annual Meeting 2015 of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, RI: May 31-June 4, 2015

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News

Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections Nov. 9, 2018

New Study Points to Sharp Decline in Sub-Freezing Days September 16, 2016

State-level Climate Projections, April 20, 2016

Report: State Summaries of regional consequences of a 2 degree celsius global mean temperature rise

Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", Climate Resiliency Symposium, UMass Amherst. Apr 18, 2018

Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", NE CASC Webinar, UMass Amherst. Mar 28, 2018

Karmalkar, A., Framework for selecting climate models for impact studies in the Northeast, NE CSC Webinar Series, UMass Amherst, Nov 16, 2016