Mechanisms for species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Project Leader:
Curtice Griffin
Project Fellows:
Alexej Sirén
William DeLuca
Project Investigators:
Radley Horton (Columbia University)
Toni Lyn Morelli (USGS)
Frank Thompson (University of Missouri, Columbia)
Partners:
Resource Managers
Federal agencies
US Geological Survey (USGS) Science Centers
USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center
US Fish and Wildlife Service
North Atlantic LCC
USFWS Northeast Office (Region 5)
USDA Forest Service
USDA Forest Service National Forest System
NGOs
Research community
Dartmouth College
University of Missouri
Columbia University
University of Massachusetts
Maine Department of Conservation
New Hampshire Fish and Game
Vermont Department of Forests, Parks, & Recreation
New York Department of Environmental Conservation
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States:
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
Virginia
West Virginia
Ohio
Kentucky
Indiana
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
+19 more
Status:
Completed
 
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57b35c6de4b03bcb01039665 View in ScienceBase https://necasc.umass.edu/biblio/final-report-examining-mechanisms-species-respo… View Final Report

Overview

Climate change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance are documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. We leveraged the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) and its partners and used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. Moreover, we documented biological thresholds related to climate variability and change for critical species in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. Our objectives were to identify the primary drivers (e.g., climate change, urban growth) of species distribution changes in the Northeast; examine the nature of species landscape capability change over time to identify potential thresholds; determine how changing temperatures and snowpack characteristics will drive species interactions; determine the sensitivity of tree and bird responses to the magnitude, variability, periodicity, and seasonality of temperature and precipitation under climate change in the eastern U.S.; develop projections based on discrete climate triggers that have been linked to known biological thresholds; and identify how discrete climate triggers such as extreme events will correlate with known biological thresholds. Focal species included eastern tree species, songbirds, moose, Canada lynx, snowshoe hare, and southern pine beetle. Major outcomes include 1) knowledge of the mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution of vulnerable wildlife and tree populations that will enable better assessment of vulnerability and adaptation planning; and 2) improving how these results are conveyed to stakeholders by identifying understandable responses in the form of thresholds.

 

Publications

Bonnot, T. W., Cox, A., Thompson, F. R., & Millspaugh, J. J. (2018). Threat of climate change on a songbird population through its impacts on breeding. Nature Climate Change, 8, 718-722. http://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0232-8 (Original work published Jul-23-2018)
Lesk, C., Coffel, E., D'Amato, A., Dodds, K., & Horton, R. (2017). Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters. Nature Climate Change, 7, 713-717. http://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3375 (Original work published Aug-28-2017)
Loman, Z. G., Deluca, W. V., Harrison, D. J., Loftin, C. S., Rolek, B. W., & Wood, P. B. (2017). Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance. Landscape Ecology, 33(1), 77-91. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0582-z
McGarigal, K., Compton, B. W., Plunkett, E. B., Deluca, W. V., GRAND, J. O. A. N. N. A., Ene, E., & Jackson, S. D. (2018). A landscape index of ecological integrity to inform landscape conservation. Landscape Ecology, 1-20. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-018-0653-9 (Original work published 8-Jun-2018)
McGarigal, K., Plunkett, E. B., Willey, L. L., Compton, B. W., Deluca, W. V., & GRAND, J. O. A. N. N. A. (2018). Modeling non-stationary urban growth: The SPRAWL model and the ecological impacts of development. Landscape And Urban Planning, 177, 178-190. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.04.018 (Original work published Jan-09-2018)
Sirén, A. P. K., & Morelli, T. L. (2020). Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): An~extension for predicting range shifts. Journal Of Animal Ecology, 89, 940-954. http://doi.org/10.1111/jane.v89.410.1111/1365-2656.13150 (Original work published Jan-04-2020)
Sirén, A. P. K., Somos-Valenzuela, M., Callahan, C., Kilborn, J. R., Duclos, T., Tragert, C., & Morelli, T. L. (2018). Looking beyond wildlife: using remote cameras to evaluate accuracy of gridded snow data. Remote Sensing In Ecology And Conservation. http://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.85 (Original work published 26-Apr-2018AD)
Deluca, W. V., Woodworth, B. K., Mackenzie, S. A., Newman, A. E. M., Cooke, H. A., Phillips, L. M., et al. (2019). A boreal songbird\textquoterights 20,000~km migration across North America and the Atlantic Ocean. Ecology, 100, e02651. http://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2651 (Original work published March 2019)
Linden, D. W., Sirén, A. P. K., & Perkins, P. P. (2018). Integrating telemetry data into spatial capture-recapture modifies inferences on multi-scale resource selection. Ecosphere. http://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1101/131144
Loman, Z. G., Blomberg, E. J., Deluca, W. V., Harrison, D. J., Loftin, C. S., & Wood, P. B. (2017). Landscape capability predicts upland game bird abundance and occurrence. The Journal Of Wildlife Management. http://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21265 (Original work published Apr-27-2017)
Deluca, W. V., & King, D. I. (2016). Montane birds shift downslope despite recent warming in the northern Appalachian Mountains. Journal Of Ornithology, 158, 493-505. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-016-1414-7 (Original work published Nov-23-2016)
Sirén, A. P. K., Maynard, D. S., Kilborn, J. R., & Pekins, P. J. (2016). Efficacy of remote telemetry data loggers for landscape-scale monitoring: A case study of American martens. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 40, 570-582. http://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.680 (Original work published Sep-03-2016)
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Presentations

Bonnot, T. W., W. A. Cox, F. R. Thompson III, J. J. Millspaugh. 2017.  Combining individual-based and dynamic-landscape metapopulation models to identify climate change threat to a regional songbird population. 24th Annual Wildlife Society Conference, Albuquerque, NM. September 2017. Invited.
Bonnot, T. W.  The effects of global warming on the population viability of Acadian Flycatchers across the Central Hardwoods region into the 21st century.  American Bird Conservancy Brown Bag Webinar, National Webinar. 2017. Invited.
A community perspective on the effects of climate change on species distributions in the boreal forest of the northeastern United States, AGU, December 2016, San Francisco, CA.
Sirén, A.P.K. Northeast Forest Carnivore Working Group Workshop, SUNY-ESF Adirondack Ecological Center, Newcomb, NY. September 2017. Invited
Climate change refugia, landscape connectivity, and translational ecology. University of Connecticut Department of Environment and Wildlife, Storrs, CT. November 2017.
Using decision tools to assess vulnerability and manage wildlife response to climate change. Annual Michigan Department of Natural Resources Professional Development Training, Traverse City, MI, January 2018.
Climate change refugia, landscape connectivity, and translational ecology. Reed College Department of Biology, February 2018.
The Climate Project Screening Tool: Incorporating Climate Adaptation into On-the-Ground Agency Activities, NEAFWA, Burlington, VT, April 2018.
Wildlife Society Conference Annual Meeting; MtnClim 2018 Conference, WA, September 2018.
"Looking beyond wildlife: Using remote cameras to evaluate bias of gridded climate data", MtnClim 2018, Gothic, CO, September 2018.
"Interacting effects of predation, density-dynamics, and resource availability on southern snowshoe hare populations", Annual Wildlife Society Conference, Cleveland, OH, October 2018.
Forest Ecology and Management Conference organized session and presentation, Burlington, VT, December 2018.
Relative impacts of climate change and urban growth on northeastern wildlife, Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative, Burlington, VT, December 2018.
Sensitivity of maize yields to sub-seasonal rainfall distribution and extremes in the United States, AGU, Washington D.C. December 2018.
Bonnot, T.W. and W.V. Deluca. 2019. Mechanisms for species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds? Brown-bag seminar. Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Amherst, MA, February 2019.
Bonnot, T. W., W. A. Cox, F. R. Thompson III, J. J. Millspaugh. 2017.  Climate change threatens a songbird population through its impacts on breeding. American Ornithological Society Meeting 2019. Anchorage, AK, June 2019.
Designing sustainable landscapes: a landscape conservation design for the northeastern US, Northeast Society of American Foresters, Burlington, VT, December 2019.
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