Determining the Skill and Value of Incorporating Streamflow Forecasts into an Early Drought Detection System

This research investigated forecast skill in predicting the onset and severity of drought.  One of the unique features this project was the active engagement of major a number of water supply utilities and an evaluation of how climate informed short-term stream flow forecasts and longer-range climate change forecasts influence the water supply systems.  We engaged with the cities of Boston, New York, Providence, Philadelphia, and Baltimore to explore how operational policies that consider climate change could help them prepare for the future conditions that may be different than in the past, particularly in terms of variability.   In one case, a project, including an evaluation of seasonal-scale hydrologic forecasts for the east coast, was advised through discussions with the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, the organization responsible for providing the city's drinking water. This was performed in conjunction with CCRUN.  In addition, another project focused over a two-year period with the City of Baltimore and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission to develop climate-informed drought plans for managing the water supply of Baltimore. 

Stream flow forecasts were incorporated with other key drought indices in a composite drought index to predict and classify drought severity. The skill of the combined drought indices was demonstrated through a case study on the Baltimore Water Supply. A web-based decision support tool is under development that will provide operators of the Baltimore Water Supply and the greater Susquehanna River Basin enhanced understanding of operational alternatives and impacts.  An OASIS Model: Operations and Planning Tool for the Greater Susquehanna River Basin and Climate re-forecasts (NOAA, NWS, MARFC) and a STELLA web tool model of the City of Baltimore water and a case study of drought indicators suppliers were developed.

Tool: STELLA Drought Action Response Tool (DART): Screening tool for drought indicators and Baltimore responses

Tool: SRB OASIS Model: Operations & Planning Tool for the Greater Susquehanna River Basin 

Climate re-forecasts (NOAA NWS, MARFC)