Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)

Project Leader:

Alexander Bryan

Project Investigators:

Raymond Bradley (UMass Amherst)

Ambarish Karmalkar (UMass Amherst)

Michelle Staudinger (USGS)

Toni Lyn Morelli (USGS)

Michael Rawlins (UMass Amherst)

Radley Horton (Columbia University)

Liang Ning (UMass Amherst)

+2 more

Partners:

Resource Managers

Federal agencies

National Park Service

Acadia National Park

Colonial National Historical Park

USDA Forest Service

Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS)

Research community

ACERnet

University of Rhode Island

Columbia University

Michigan State University

Tribal Organizations

+8 more

States:

Maine

New Hampshire

Vermont

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New York

Pennsylvania

New Jersey

Delaware

Maryland

Virginia

West Virginia

Ohio

Kentucky

Indiana

Michigan

Wisconsin

Illinois

Minnesota

Iowa

Missouri

+19 more

Status:

Completed

https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5ba40514e4b08583a5c820a6 View in ScienceBase Final Report: Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) View Final Report

Overview

This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to their decisions and priorities. Our project team served as a resource to answer individual inquiries related to climate model projections in order to aid climate change adaptation. Additionally, our team contributed to the development of a synthesis document to help the Midwest and Northeast states prepare their threatened wildlife for climate change through their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). Other efforts included assisting tribal communities to prepare their landscapes and economies for future climate, as well as helping planners in the region adapt and adjust their infrastructure for the future. Many resource managers need information about how the climate is changing and related uncertainties in the model projectionsto aid them in climate change adaptation planning.

Publications

Alexander, K. E., Leavenworth, W. B., Willis, T. V., Hall, C., Mattocks, S., Bittner, S. M., et al. (2017). Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event. Science Advances, 3, e1601635. http://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601635 (Original work published Jan-18-2017)

Bryan, A., Steiner, A. L., & Posselt, D. J. (2015). Regional modeling of surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on Great Lakes hydroclimate. Journal Of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 1044-1064. http://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022316 (Original work published 16-Feb-2015AD)

Presentations

Climate change 101 and impact assessment for Fire Island National Seashore. Long Island. Aug/Sep, 2017

Climate change 101 and impact assessment for New Bedford Whaling National Park in New Bedford, MA. June 28, 2017

Bryan, A.M. "Scenario Planning: Managing for a Range of Possible Futures" NE CSC Regional Science Meeting. May 15, 2017.

National Adaptation Forum session co-lead: "Incorporating Future Climate Projections into Adaptation Planning: A Layman's Guide" May 11, 2017.

NE CASC Seminar Series: "A sticky situation: When maple syrup producers receive conflicting guidance from different climate models" March 8, 2017

Kearney E, Bryan A M, Karmalkar A, Morelli T L: When does choice of downscaling method matter in decision making? A case study with maple syrup production, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA, Dec 12, 2016.

Bryan, A. M.: Climate Change Science: A Western Perspective, United Southern and Eastern Tribes (USET) Climate Workshop, Oneida, NY, Nov 9, 2016.

Bryan, A. M.: Planning Under Uncertainty: Conveying our Science to Help Managers Move Forward, National Climate Science Centers Student and Early Career Training, Amherst, MA, Nov 3, 2016

Bryan, A. M.: Different Climate Models, Different Forecasts: When does it affect my decision?, National Climate Science Centers Student and Early Career Training, Amherst, MA, Nov 2, 2016.

Bryan, A. M.: Indigenous Communities: Approaches, Successes, and Challenges in Tribal and First Nations Adaptation Planning, Session Convener, Great Lakes Adaptation Forum, Ann Arbor, MI, Oct 6, 2016.

Bryan, A. M., Gates, Omar (GLISA): Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region, Great Lakes Adaptation Forum, Ann Arbor, MI, Oct 5, 2016.

Bryan, A. M., NE CSC: Adapting our land, water, wildlife and cultural resources to climate change, Great Lakes Adaptation Forum, Ann Arbor, MI, Oct 5, 2016.

Bryan, A. M.: Climate Change: An overview for the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, Menominee Reservation, WI, Sep 6, 2016.

Bryan, A. M.: Climate Change - An overview for the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, Menominee Reservation, WI, Aug 1, 2016.

Bradley, B.; Bryan, A. M.: Implications of climate change for invasive species, Northeast Invasive Species and Climate Change (NISCC) Workshop, Amherst, MA, Jul 21, 2016.

Bryan, A.M.: Overview of climate change and impacts in the region, Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) training: Climate Change Adaptation Planning, Red Cliff, WI, July 12, 2016.

Bryan, A. M.: Climate Trends for COLO, Colonial National Historical Park, Yorktown, VA, June 1, 2016.

Bryan, A. M. and T. L. Morelli: Informing climate change adaptation in the Northeast and Midwest United States: The role of Climate Science Centers, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 18 Dec 2015.

Terando, A., A. Wootten, M. Eaton, M. Runge, J. Littell, A. Bryan, and S. Carter: Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 14 Dec 2015.

+14 more

Other

Star, J., N. Fisichelli, A. M. Bryan, A. Babson, R. Cole-Will, A. Miller-Rushing. 2016. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop Summary.

Rubinoff, P. and collaborators from NPS Northeast Region and U Rhode Island: "First Workshop Summary: Assessing the Exposure and Sensitivity of Colonial National Historical Park (COLO) to Climate Change", Aug 9, 2016.

News: Preparing Acadia National Park for Climate Change. October 29, 2015

News: Understanding Climate Projections: Guidance for Climate Change Adaptation Planning. April 22, 2015.