Assessing climate change projections over the Northeast

Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP3 data, we are developing a range of projections for the Eastern U.S.  We are also developing extreme event projections for stakeholder-relevant metrics (e.g., days over 90 °F, days below 32 °F, and days with over 1 inch of precipitation) based on CMIP5 models and North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dynamical downscaling.  We are also evaluating the performance of these models over historical time periods. Current research thrusts include emphasis on extreme heat stress (heat plus humidity) events and the relationship between extreme minimum temperatures and Southern Pine Beetle range expansion in the Northeast U.S.  

We are finding that small changes in average conditions are associate with large changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events.  We are also finding large biases in the NARRCAP regional climate model simulations of historical conditions.

This project will provide ensemble-based climate change projections with uncertainty for various climate impacts research.

• Product: Draft Climate Risk information reports for New York City and New York State
• Meetings: Climate Science Day, Washington, DC, February 2013, J. Winter