Toni Lyn Morelli
Staff
USGS Research Ecologist
Research Interests
After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn Morelli obtained a National Science Foundation Bioinformatics Postdoctoral Fellowship, collaborating with Steve Beissinger and Craig Moritz on an extension of the Grinnell Resurvey Project; she continues these collaborations examining climate refugia under funding she obtained from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In her role as USGS Research Ecologist for the NE CSC, Toni Lyn uses geospatial analysis, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, and population and landscape genetics techniques to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change. Currently she is investigating how climate change is affecting boreal communities in the northeastern United States.
If you want to know more about Toni Lyn's previous research, including her work with lemurs, follow this link to a comic of her research.
Expertise
- Landscape and species conservation
- Climate adaptation
- Translational ecology
- Mammal vulnerability
- Decision analysis
Education
Ph.D.: Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 2008
B.S.: Zoology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI
Affiliations
U.S. Geological Survey
Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Media Coverage
North American Wildlife
- CBS Boston, Climate change may be hurting winter more than any other season in New England, February 22, 2023
- The Providence Journal, Warming winters have animals waking up from hibernation early, putting them in danger, January 12, 2023
- Science News, The do's and don'ts of monitoring many wildlife species at once, February 15, 2020
- KQED, Where Animals and Plants Might Survive Climate Change, September 30, 2019
- The Atlantic, The Best Real Estate to Get Animals Through Climate Change, January 9, 2019
- Yale Center for Environmental Communication Climate Connections, Interview regarding species vulnerability to climate change and specifically declining American pika populations, September 17, 2018
- The Atlantic, To Survive, These Animals Must Lose Their Camouflage, February 15, 2018
African Biodiversity
- The Washington Post, Madagascar’s lemurs face a grim future because of human activity. A solution? Planting trees, January 4, 2020
- Newsweek, Climate change and deforestation could wipe out Madagascar’s ruffed lemurs and rainforest in next 50 years, experts warn, December 23, 2019
- Courthouse News Service, Climate Change May Be Death Knell for Madagascar Lemurs, December 23, 2019
Sugar Maple
- NBC5, Maple syrup production to drop in New England by turn of century, study says, June 25, 2019
- Daily Hampshire Gazette, Maple sugaring expected to decline drastically by century’s end, June 21, 2019
- NECASC, Project Completed: Northeast Climate-Vulnerable Habitats and Species, March 26, 2019
Interactions With Invasive Species
- Science Daily, Why confronting invasive species is one of the best ways to prepare for climate change, June 3, 2022
- 22News, Invasive Species Symposium held at UMass Amherst, July 12, 2018
Others
- NPR, Health experts say warmer Northeast winters contribute to more active deer ticks, March 3, 2023
- UMass News, UMass Amherst ecologists honor 9-year-old citizen scientist with community action award, March 2, 2023
- Daily Hampshire Gazette, Rain, rain, go away: Local farmers wrangle with a difficult season, December 31, 2018
- New England News Collaborative, NEXT, Interview about how the landscape will change, how the region will accommodate the change, and exploring innovative ways that we can adapt to the changing landscape, May 3, 2018
Projects
Impact of red squirrel distributional shifts on resiliency of birds in the face of climate changeAssessing potential impacts of climate change on carnivore occupancy and snowshoe hare demography along elevational and latitudinal gradients in the Northeastern U.S.Conservation of Climate Change Refugia
Effects of arctic ground squirrel abundance and distribution on carbon cycling and ecosystem dynamicsRegional Effort on Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) ManagementBiodiversity Findings and Outreach Impact from National Park Service BioBlitzesA monarch's view of the city: urban monarch landscape conservation designAssessing the Vulnerability of Northeastern Wildlife to Climate ChangeIncreasing the resilience and resistance of climate-vulnerable northeastern species and ecosystemsEvaluation of Downscaled Climate Modeling Techniques for the Northeast U.S.: A Case Study of Maple Syrup ProductionIdentifying Vulnerable Ecosystems and Supporting Climate-Smart Strategies to Address Invasive Species Under Climate ChangeA regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.
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Publications
Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-makingClimate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategiesGlobal environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions
Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate changeTranslational invasion ecology: bridging research and practice to address one of the greatest threats to biodiversityIdentifying climate‐resistant vernal pools: hydrologic refugia for amphibian reproduction under droughts and climate changeRISCC Management Challenge: Embracing the Future--Promoting Adaptation and Resilience to Invasive Species and Climate ChangeToward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scaleAbiotic stress and biotic factors mediate range dynamics on opposing edgesMulti‐species occupancy models: review, roadmap, and recommendationsIncorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managersInteractive range-limit theory (iRLT): An~extension for predicting range shiftsMapping Climate Resistant Vernal Pools of the Northeastern U.S.Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S.Regional Invasive Species & Climate Change Management Challenge: Taking Action by Managing Invasive Species in the Context of Climate ChangeClimate‐change refugia: biodiversity in the slow laneVernal Pool Inundation ModelsMapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S.Final Report: Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?Sugar maple responses to climate change: We'll boil it down for youRegional Effort on Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) ManagementClimate RefugiaAdjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shiftsManaging interactions between invasive species and climate changeDouble Trouble: Understanding Risks from Invasive Species + Climate ChangeFinal Report for USGS-NECSC and USFS-NRS Cooperative Research on Climate-Vulnerable Habitats and Species in the NortheastFinding the sweet spot: Shifting optimal climate for maple syrup production in North AmericaIncorporating climate change into invasive species management: insights from managersLocal climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe haresHow climate change could affect farming in New EnglandEmpowering well-informed decisions: Making invasion science accessible for policy and management (S&T)Chapter 7 : Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume IIFinal Report for Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar MapleLooking beyond wildlife: using remote cameras to evaluate accuracy of gridded snow dataNew England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework projectBalancing research and service to decision makersClimate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistenceDeveloping a translational ecology workforceErosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadows network with climate changeFoundations of translational ecologyNavigating translational ecology: creating opportunities for scientist participationVulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation needThe connections between invasive species and climate changeClimate Change and the Backyard GardenerManaging Climate Change Refugia for Climate AdaptationNortheast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Workshop ReportWhen Does Choice of Downscaling Method Matter in Decision Making? A Case Study with Maple Syrup ProductionIntegrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans
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