Final Report: A Regional Synthesis of Climate Data to Inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeastern U.S.
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A timeline showing the progression of a key climate condition (springtime drought), biological response (defoliation by Spongy Moth), and ecosystem impact (tree mortality) in the Spongy Moth outbreak in Connecticut. Drought data are sourced from the National integrated Drought Information System, and Spongy Moth defoliation and mortality data are from the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Credit: Figure designed by Liz Sisk, U.S. Geological Survey, National Climate Adaptation Science Center
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Projected changes in the annual (ANN) average temperature. (a) the end-of-century (2071-2100 mean) projections relative to the present day (1991-2020) mean. The projections show mean values across the nine climate models for the medium emissions scenario, RCP4.5. (b) The historical and projected temperature in ˚F as simulated by climate models. Blue and red lines show median projections under medium and high scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The shading indicates the spread in projections across nine climate models and all gridboxes within the region.
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Projected changes in the number of days with maximum temperature, Tmax, above 95˚F. (a) the end-of-century (2071-2100 mean) projections relative to the present day (1991-2020) mean. To indicate the highest values plausible for this variable, the projections show maximum values at every gridbox across the nine climate models for the medium emissions scenario, RCP4.5. (b) The historical and spatially projected values for the number of days with Tmax above 95˚F as simulated by climate models. Blue and red lines show median projections under medium and high scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The shading indicates the spread in projections across nine climate models and all gridboxes within the region.
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A timeline showing the progression of a key climate condition (springtime drought), biological response (defoliation by Spongy Moth), and ecosystem impact (tree mortality) in the Spongy Moth outbreak in Connecticut. Drought data are sourced from the National integrated Drought Information System, and Spongy Moth defoliation and mortality data are from the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Credit: Figure designed by Liz Sisk, U.S. Geological Survey, National Climate Adaptation Science Center
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Projected changes in the annual (ANN) average temperature. (a) the end-of-century (2071-2100 mean) projections relative to the present day (1991-2020) mean. The projections show mean values across the nine climate models for the medium emissions scenario, RCP4.5. (b) The historical and projected temperature in ˚F as simulated by climate models. Blue and red lines show median projections under medium and high scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The shading indicates the spread in projections across nine climate models and all gridboxes within the region.
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Projected changes in the number of days with maximum temperature, Tmax, above 95˚F. (a) the end-of-century (2071-2100 mean) projections relative to the present day (1991-2020) mean. To indicate the highest values plausible for this variable, the projections show maximum values at every gridbox across the nine climate models for the medium emissions scenario, RCP4.5. (b) The historical and spatially projected values for the number of days with Tmax above 95˚F as simulated by climate models. Blue and red lines show median projections under medium and high scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The shading indicates the spread in projections across nine climate models and all gridboxes within the region.
State fish and wildlife managers have a long history of managing threats such as land-use change, invasive species, and pollution. However, they have expressed a lack of expertise and capacity to keep pace with the rapid advances in climate science and noted that much of the information available is not scaled to meet their needs. In particular, state managers have expressed difficulties in assessing current climatic changes and planning for future ones in the decadal revisions of their Wildlife Action Plans. State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive and comprehensive planning documents for fish and wildlife conservation that assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in 2015 and the next revision anticipated in 2025.
To assist states in addressing the challenges that climate change brings to conservation and management, NE CASC investigators, ORISE Fellows, and network partners worked collaboratively with state agencies to develop a report, entitled “A Regional Synthesis of Climate Data to Inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.” This report addresses four main areas of climate science data needs, and its goal is to assemble the best available climate science and provide an accessible foundation of information to empower SWAP authors to use in their decadal planning process.
The report covers 1) observed and projected climate changes, 2) species biological responses to climate change, 3) climate vulnerabilities and risks, and 4) scale-specific adaptation strategies and actions for 418 Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and their associated habitats that occur in the 13-state, and Washington, D.C., footprint of the Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) region.
Additionally, the report authors provide illustrative graphics and case studies of the theory, applications, and operationalization of climate frameworks and tools spanning multiple scales ranging from species to habitat, threat-based assessments, and more. One case study explores the complex interaction of an invasive species, the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) with changing climate patterns, impacts on forest ecosystems, and manager responses. Stakeholders utilized diverse strategies including monitoring, public outreach, and forest management to address this threat, and faced additional changes to implementation. Interactive appendices and resource libraries empower users to go deeper and “choose their own adventure” of useful takeaways from the synthesis report’s findings. The report concludes with outlooks on what success looks like for climate relevant actions in SWAPs in the decade to come.
