Walleye recruitment success is less resilient to warming water temperatures in lakes with abundant largemouth bass populations

Abstract

Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (1) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success; and (2) identify the influence of lake characteristics (area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD) on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = -0.11, 90% CI=-0.34-0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%) and positive in 161 (45%). The effect of annual DD was most negative in lakes with high largemouth bass densities, and on average the probability of recruitment was highest in large lakes with low largemouth bass densities. Conductivity and mean DD did not influence recruitment or the effect of annual DD. Walleye recruitment was most resilient to warming in lakes with few largemouth bass, suggesting that the effects of climate change depend on lake-specific food web and habitat contexts.