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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Authors:

Chris Swanston

Leslie Brandt

Maria Janowiak

Stephen Handler

Patricia Butler-Leopold

Louis Iverson

Frank Thompson III

Todd Ontl

Danielle Shannon

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Year of Publication:
2017
Secondary Title:
Climatic Change
ISSN:
0165-0009
DOI:
10.1007/s10584-017-2065-2
Pages:
103-116
Volume:
146
Year:
2017
Date:
Sep-6-2017
URL:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs10584-017-2065-2

Abstract

ForestsoftheMidwestandNortheastsignificantlydefinethecharacter,culture,and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures will increase suitable habitat and biomass for many temperate species. Upland systems dominated by oak species generally have low vulnerability due to greater tolerance of hot and dry conditions, and some oak, hickory, and pine species are expected to become more competitive under hotter and physiologically drier conditions. However, changes in precipitation patterns, disturbance regimes, soil moisture, pest and disease outbreaks, and nonnative invasive species are expected to contribute forest vulnera- bility across the region. Northern, boreal, and montane forests have the greatest assessed vulnerability as many of their dominant tree species are projected to decline under warmer conditions. Coastal forests have high vulnerability, as sea level rise along the Atlantic coast increases damage from inundation, greater coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion.