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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

Total and extreme precipitation changes over the Northeastern United States

Authors:

Huanping Huang

Jonathan Winter

Erich Osterberg

Radley Horton

Brian Beckage

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Year of Publication:
2017
Secondary Title:
Journal of Hydrometeorology
ISSN:
1525-755X
DOI:
10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1
Year:
2017
Date:
Apr-20-2017
URL:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1

Abstract

The Northeastern United States has experienced a large increase in precipitation over recent decades. Annual and seasonal changes of total and extreme precipitation from station observations in the Northeast are assessed over multiple time periods spanning 1901–2014. Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast have increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation has experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996–2014 was 53% higher than from 1901–1995. Spatially, coastal areas received more total and extreme precipitation on average, but increases across the changepoints are distributed fairly uniformly across the domain. Increases in annual total precipitation across the 2002 changepoint have been driven by significant total precipitation increases in fall and summer, while increases in annual extreme precipitation across the 1996 changepoint have been driven by significant extreme precipitation increases in fall and spring. The ability of gridded observed and reanalysis precipitation data to reproduce station observations was also evaluated. Gridded observations perform well in reproducing averages and trends of annual and seasonal total precipitation, but extreme precipitation trends show significantly different spatial and domain-averaged trends than station data. North American Regional Reanalysis generally underestimates annual and seasonal total and extreme precipitation means and trends relative to station observations, and also shows substantial differences in the spatial pattern of total and extreme precipitation trends within the Northeast.