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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Authors:

John Hall

Christopher Weaver

Jayantha Obeysekera

Mark Crowell

Radley Horton

Robert Kopp

John Marburger

Douglas Marcy

Adam Parris

William Sweet

William Veatch

Kathleen White

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Year of Publication:
2019
Secondary Title:
Coastal Management
ISSN:
0892-0753
DOI:
10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012
Pages:
1-24
Year:
2019
Date:
24-Jan-2019
URL:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012

Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.