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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

Potential Impacts of Changes in Climate on Turbidity in New York City’s Ashokan Reservoir

Authors:

Nicholas Rossi

Leslie DeCristofaro

Scott Steinschneider

Casey Brown

Richard Palmer

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Year of Publication:
2016
Publisher:
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Secondary Title:
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
ISSN:
0733-9496, 1943-5452
DOI:
10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000614
Issue:
3
Pages:
04015066
Volume:
142
Year:
2016

Abstract

This paper applies an approach for determining water resources vulnerability caused by climate change to the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS). The results provide potential responses of the system to changes in climate and guidance that can inform short-term and long-term planning decisions. This research includes models of the hydrology and operations of the NYCWSS and includes a statistical model of turbidity loading and a zero-dimentional model of turbidity concentration in the Ashokan Reservoir. Using a stochastic weather generator, incremental changes are made to precipitation and temperature and these are used to drive a coupled hydrology-simulation model. The results illustrate the sensitivity of the system, and in particular Ashokan Reservoir turbidity, to changes in climate.