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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Authors:

Maria Janowiak

Anthony D'Amato

Christopher Swanston

Louis Iverson

Frank Thompson

William Dijak

Stephen Matthews

Matthew Peters

Anantha Prasad

Jacob Fraser

Leslie Brandt

Patricia Butler-Leopold

Stephen Handler

Danielle Shannon

Diane Burbank

John Campbell

Charles Cogbill

Matthew Duveneck

Marla Emery

Nicholas Fisichelli

Jane Foster

Jennifer Hushaw

Laura Kenefic

Amanda Mahaffey

Toni Lyn Morelli

Nicholas Reo

Paul Schaberg

Rogers Simmons

Aaron Weiskittel

Sandy Wilmot

David Hollinger

Erin Lane

Lindsey Rustad

Pamela Templer

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Year of Publication:
2018
Publisher:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station
City:
Newtown Square, PA
DOI:
10.2737/NRS-GTR-173
Year:
2018
URL:
https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635

Abstract

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and natural resource professionals familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show that the mean annual temperature has increased across the region by 2.4 \textdegreeF, with even greater warming during winter. Precipitation patterns also changed during this time, with a slight trend toward greater annual precipitation and a substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Projected climate trends using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3 to 8 \textdegreeF for the assessment area by 2100. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in fall and winter precipitation, and spring and summer precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many northern and boreal species, including balsam fir, red spruce, and black spruce, may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for eight forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process with 20 scientists and resource managers from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Montane spruce-fir, low-elevation spruce-fir, and lowland mixed conifer forests were determined to be the most vulnerable communities. Central hardwoods, transition hardwoods, and pitch pine-scrub oak forests were perceived as having lower vulnerability to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent animals and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.