Integrating Climate Forecasts and Reforecast Products into Reservoir Operations Management

Abstract

This research evaluates the quality and value of forecasts generated from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) using the Jackson Hydropower Project on the Sultan River in Washington State as a case study. Streamflow reforecasts are generated and used to evaluate the predictive skill of the CFSv2 in the context of decision making and reservoir operations. An analog method is used to downscale and bias correct the CFSv2 reforecast data by selecting scenarios from the observed record that are similar to the current CFSv2 precipitation conditions. These constructed analog data serve as input to a watershed model (SAC-SMA) that generates streamflow values. Finally, the streamflows produced from the analog reforecast data, climatology, and the observed record are run through an optimization model of each system. Metrics of system performance are compared for the reforecast, climatology, and observed scenarios to evaluate the potential benefits of using CFSv2 seasonal forecasts in systems decision making.