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Final Report: Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S.

Authors:

William DeLuca

Publication Type:
Report
Year of Publication:
2021
Year:
2021

Abstract

As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need specific management strategies to help them adapt. One strategy is based on the idea that some locations that species inhabit today will remain suitable over time. These locations are called climate refugia. However, other locations may become too hot, dry or wet for a species to continue to inhabit, and may eventually become unsuitable for the species. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, they sometimes prioritize locations that are predicted to be climate refugia. Rarely can those managers consider how accessible refugia locations are to these species. Some species are often unable to move through particular features on the landscape, for example, development, wetlands, or steep slopes. What good is it to protect climate refugia if they are not connected to the broader landscape? We focused on 10 vulnerable species identified by conservation practitioners, identifying a set of cores for each species that include areas of high relative value to the species either in the present, the future, or both. We assessed and mapped the connections between each nearby pair of cores (both in the present and future) and used the pairwise connectivities to score each core’s connectivity in the present and future. Finally, we created an overall score that combines landscape capability, climate refugia, and the connectivity of each core which we consider a good starting point for conservation of each species. In general we found that the highest habitat values, connectivites, and scores were concentrated both towards the center of each species range and towards the center of clusters of cores. This information will help conservation practitioners prioritize land that will not only remain suitable for species given climate change but will also be accessible and thus habitable by those species.