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The University of Massachusetts Amherst

Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 \textdegreeC and 2 \textdegreeC for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States

Authors:

A. Karmalkar

Raymond Bradley

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Year of Publication:
2017
Secondary Title:
PLOS ONE
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0168697
Pages:
e0168697
Volume:
12
Year:
2017
Date:
Jan-11-2017
URL:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0168697

Abstract

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2\textdegreeC above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2\textdegreeC and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2\textdegreeC about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2\textdegreeC thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2\textdegreeC warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3\textdegreeC when global warming reaches 2\textdegreeC. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5\textdegreeC and 2\textdegreeC are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.